Justin Lawrence, for us Rockies fans provided hope in 2023 that the team had finally found their closer of the future. 2024 had high expectations for Lawrence. After all, he pitched to a 3.72 ERA in 69 games with 11 saves averaging just over a strikeout per inning. His sidewinding delivery and electric arm allowed us to dream going into the following season.
Dreams Crushed
2024 was not a year Justin wants to remember. He started out in the closer role but was quickly relegated due to the fact he couldn’t find his form. His ERA ballooned to 6.49 in 59 games and his strikeout rate was down nearly a third from the previous season. He spent some time injured last year missing some time with a bad shoulder. This isn’t the first time Justin has faced adversity in his career. Before the 2020 season Justin was suspended 80 games by the MLB for testing positive for a banned substance. He sat out the entire year and bounced back to crack the Rockies roster in 2021 appearing in 19 games. He was able to bounce back from a setback extremely early in his career, a moment that would derail most guys. After such a dominate 2023 and a hard crash in 2024, will Lawrence bounce back heading into 2025?
What Gives?
The Rockies’ bullpen looks to reestablish themselves as a whole in 2025 after being dead last in most major statistical categories. They had the worst bullpen ERA and gave up the most runs. This is in part to Lawrence having a down year in 2024, as he was expected to be the cornerstone of a young bullpen. But 2025 provides a different outlook for former closer as he uses analytics to help him improve this new season. According to MLB’s Thomas Harding, Lawrence has learned that the baseball was flexing off his index finger instead of his middle finger. With this small minor detail it allowed Lawrence breaking run value to decrease from 97th percentile in 2023 to 57th percentile in 2024. His sinker also averaged nearly 1 mph less in 2024 as compared to his breakout 2023 season. When the adjustment was made, his movement was back according to coaches and staff.
2025 Outlook
Justin Lawrence is competing with the likes of Victor Vodnik and Tyler Kinley for the late inning high pressure situations out of the bullpen this year. With Lawrence’s adjustment and supposed improvement he could get back to 2023 form. His sinker was 97th percentile and if he can get back to this type of movement this favors extremely well at Coors Field. His sinker having 30.8 inches of break would be an asset in an extremely young bullpen still trying to find their way. He also looks at 2024 as being a “fluke” and is taking his lessons from the season and moving forward into 2025. The sky is the limit for Justin and as fans we hope he returns to 2023 form. Having a sub-4.00 ERA isn’t easy as a pitcher in thin air but he made it look easy. With the minor adjustment, and the forward thinking attitude look for him to bounce back. I believe he’ll be the everyday closer by season’s end.
Thin Air Baseball 
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